(Things You Probably Already Know About the) Super Bowl Preview

Hello all.  It's been a full twelve days since Kyle Williams Persecution Day in San Francisco and Bil-Lee Cund-evans Appreciation Day(s) in New England.  Those three individuals had quite a bit to do with this year's Super Bowl participants, the New York Giants and New England Patriots.  But you knew that.

As a matter of fact, the general product probably knows more than they even want to about this matchup.  After 12 days, I think it's safe to say that everyone is in full 'Let's just play the damn game already' mode.  So I will approach this preview that most readers have already had their fill of pregame information--whether it be from ESPN, newspapers, magazines, or....Maya Angelou?

So with that in mind, maybe it's just best for me to ask some of my own questions.  They may be realistic, hypothetical, rhetorical, playfully-hateful, who knows?  The hope is they will lead me to a reasonable, unbiased (yeah right) prediction fro Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis.  Les'go...

Question #1: Are the Two Best Teams Playing in Super Bowl XLVI?
Consider question #1 my attempt to remedy the lack of an AFC/NFC Championship recap blog two weeks ago.  Sorry about that.  Needless to say, much was made of the fashion in which the Giants and Patriots won their games.  In the days afterward, we seemed to hear the name Kyle Williams more times than any Giants player combined.  We heard how Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff helped that Patriots way more than them helped themselves in the game beforehand.  With so many goats, there wasn't much time to talk about heroes.  Which was a shame.

Now, getting to this question.  In the final four of Giants, 49ers, Patriots, Ravens, I think the matchup we have is probably the 'juiciest.'  49ers-Ravens would be the nastiest.  Giants-Ravens would be a nice throwback.  Patriots-49ers would be the strangest.  On championship weekend, we saw two quarterbacks clearly outplay their counterparts, but only one advance.  But contrary to what it may seem sometimes, it's not always about the quarterback.  The Ravens and 49ers just showed some unreadiness for the Big Time with unusual, sometimes-inexplicable mistakes.  The Giants were fortunate to win their game, while the Patriots were unfortunate not to lose theirs.  But at the end of the day, New England has won ten games in a row, and New York has ripped through the NFC's top seeds on the road during their own five-game streak.  We'll take it.

Answer #1: Yes, we have the two best teams.  (But it's still fun to irk their uptight fans.)


Question #2: Have the Giants Gone from Root-able Underdog to Insufferable Villain?
I mean...what are they doing?  Seemingly forgetting that they were a modest 9-7 on the season and a half-fingertip away from not qualifying for the playoffs, the Giants have given off quite an aura this week.  It is certainly a trivial occurrence, considering they've seen what happened to the Jets and their mouths this season.  Simply put, "I told you so" is not something that tends to work out in the NFL.  Particularly in the playoffs.  Tom Brady's track record indicates he's not exactly a guy you want to poke with pregame talk.  Especially when he's coming off a subpar game two weeks ago.  When Plaxico Burress predicted a win over the 18-0 Patriots four years ago...it was cool.  That stuff is loveable when you're underdog by a million points (and saying 'I told you so' actually pays off in the end.)  But in a three-point spread when a lot of the public already has your back?  It seems excessive and over the top...no other way to put it.  The Giants took an immense amount of pleasure out of seeing Rex and the Jets fail to backup their talk.  Now, I know the Giants made it all the way to this point....but with this kind of brash confidence?  They could be the first Super Bowl underdog in history to have egg on its face after losing.

Now to look at things from the other side.  If we're being honest, the Giants are staying true to the theory of 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.'  The confidence was there against the Falcons.  The (slightly-less reasonable) confidence was there when traveling to Green Bay.  By virtue of they weren't going to New Orleans, the confidence was there in San Francisco.  If they were to hush up now...wouldn't that be counter-productive?  Probably not...but I can't fault them for keeping things consistent.  The Patriots have been silent all week.  Then again...what can they really say?  Some week 17 of 2007 banter?  

Answer #2: Big Blue certainly haven't gained any supporters.  In fact, if they were playing one of the other 15 teams in the AFC on Sunday, they may have talked themselves into antagonism.  But they're playing the Patriots, who simply have too much evil collateral built up.  The outside-of-New England football world still owes an incredible debt to the Giants for what they did four years ago.  A couple week's worth of trash talk isn't likely to swing too many folks in this one.    


Question #3: Wait...So Why Are the Patriots Favored?
Oh.

Well, um, that's easy.....

Cause....

Hm.

I am no expert in the workings of Las Vegas or the people that do these things.  All I can do is look at the history of Super Bowl spreads.  There has been a spread under 3 points just three times in history, and none since 1982.  (In the seven Super Bowl games when the spread was exactly 3, the favorites won 3 and the 'dogs won 4...this stuff really is just a crapshoot.)   So logic dictates that the notion of a pick'em game or a spread under 3 is pretty much extinct.  When picking the mandated favorite...One team is 13-3 with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and one team went 9-7 overall and 3-5 in the second half of 2011.  Can't hate on it. 

Answer #3: Other than the feeble above attempts at the contrary, I really have no freakin' clue.


Question #4: Is Eli Manning an Indestructible Alien? 
A fascinating inquiry.  Have you noticed that leading up to this game (and pretty much all Patriots games) everyone proclaiming "the key to beating the Patriots is hitting Brady and rattling him."  The Jets have talked about doing it twice (sometimes thrice) a year for the last decade.  It's been the strategy for Brady's whole career.

Now as much as 'hitting Brady' has been publicized...has anyone mentioned that hitting Eli Manning for a Patriots victory formula?  Um, no.  It's because as goofy, spacey, seemingly-always-frenzied as Eli Manning appears...there is nothing that can possibly refute the notion that he's an indestructible alien.  The game against San Francisco two weeks ago is example #1.  Never in my life have I seen such a throttling of a quarterback.  He was hit about 20 times (6 sacks) in his 58 dropbacks, but it seemed more like 120 hits.  The lasting image of that game may just be the :11 mark of this video.  Eli Manning may be the first quarteback in history to reverse-rattle a defense.  The fact that he could still breathe, let alone play remarkably, after some of those hits surely had the Niners feeling a little bit like Ivan Drago.  He just keeps ticking.  Anything less than a full-on Vince Wilfork bellyflop directly on Eli's temple will be ineffective in shaking him.  And I'm not even totally sure a Vince-flop will do it.

Answer #4: I'm cautiously certain Eli is 'of Earth.'  But that doesn't necessarily make him destructible.


Question #5: Besides Brady, is Rob Gronkowski the Last Guy New England Wants Injured Right Now?  
Well, let's look at the other candidates...

Besides Wilfork, no one on the defense can be in this discussion.  Yeah, Mayo makes tackles and Ninkovich gets some quarterback pressures, but...well, somebody has to.  If you want to make an argument for Stephen Gostkowski in this question, I would come to respect you quite a bit.  

But talking sensibly, the reasonable candidates come down to Gronkowski, Welker, Hernandez, or Wilfork.  And though he's a safety valve/3rd down luxury of sorts, you can take Hernandez and all of his tattoos out as well.  And Wilfork...counting him out of this discussion should not be a smear on his unbelievable play of late.  But as far as 'indispensable' players go...it can't be him.  The Patriots are just too reliant on their offensive play.

After that, I don't know if I could narrow it down any further.  Gronkowski (no, he will never be referred to as his five-letter nickname in this blog as long as I draw breath) has been Mr. Everything for the Pats and has certainly soaked up all the storylines.  But the numbers don't lie when they say Welker had 50 more targets, 30 more receptions, 200 more yards, and more 1st down catches than the big man.  Once they're in striking range, it's always Gronkowski getting the love.  But it's a different story in terms of getting to striking range.

Answer #5: I'd say Gronkowski and Welker tie for 'last guy Pats want injured' status.  They are severely, severely hindered if they lose either one.  Though if I had to pick one, Gronkowski would be the candidate to inexplicably offset his body's pain functions for a few hours and tough out the game.


Question #6: Honestly Now...Will the Running Games Even Matter?
It's not looking like it will be the end-all, be-all in this one.  Despite a resurgence from Brandon Jacobs complimenting the relentless Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants had some ghastly numbers for most of the season.  Some of that has changed of late, but they're not taking the ball out of Eli's hand when he's this red-hot.  The Giants have to be thinking that every single time Manning drops back, one of his Nicks/Cruz/Manningham/Ballard buddies will be open.  That's not to say they will be throwing every single play.  But you can count on the Giants throwing the ball on every play that matters.  Wilfork just eats up too much stuff inside.

The Patriots have a more interesting situation. They have to make sure the Giants pass rush don't just catapult toward Brady every single play.  It would behoove them to try and use the Big Blue aggressiveness to their advantage.  And Benjarvis Green-Ellis has really created a headache for defenses of late.  But there is serious limitations to this strategy--much like the Giants, you can't be taking the ball out of Brady's hands on the key plays.

Answer #6: Well, I'm not so sure I like the wording of your question.  It seems to indicate I am not 100% honest and objective all the time.  That aside, the running games will not be terribly important.  There is the obvious wrinkle of running the ball late in the game with the lead.  It's necessary to 'run' out the clock.  But the spirit of this hurtfully-worded question is whether it affects who wins an loses the game.  My gut feeling is that is will not be the deciding factor.


Question #7: Can A Scorned Tom Brady Win the Game On His Own?
We've now reached the frightful part of this interrogation.  The Giants have gained so much traction among the casual fans because Brady seemed so flawed against the Ravens.  But...what about the week before that in Denver?  Remember, 360 yards?  Six touchdowns?  Stuff like that.  I'm not saying the Giants defense is as bad as the Broncos.  But I don't think they're as good against the pass as Baltimore.  Brady is probably going to fall somewhere in the middle of his Bronco and Raven performances.  The Giants have to hope it leans more toward the latter.

The good thing for Big Blue is that they can do a lot more than hope.  They did enough to beat Brady in his own house during the regular season.  But the Patriots have also been planning for two weeks how to counteract everything the Giants will bring in terms of pressure.  But with a healthy (and talking) Tuck, Pierre-Paul, Osi and the boys all coming, it will take a whole lot more than diligent scheming to succeed.

That being said, Brady may have a whole other level for this game.  Naturally, he wants to be remembered as the best ever.  Doesn't that take a hit if, while in his prime, he loses to the same dude twice on the biggest stage?  Doesn't that hit seem a lot worse when that same dude.... IS THIS GUY?  I don't think Tom can withstand this one.  I just don't know.

Answer #7: I think the Giants ruling this out would be a grave, grave mistake.


Question #8: Is There Any Way This Game Tops to the First One, Super Bowl XLII?
That will be one tall task.  There's no way it measures up in a historical sense (stopping perfection, allowing a continued world of tranquility and happiness, etc.)  I'm writing this on Friday, the 3rd of February.  This just happens to be the day Eli and the Giants shocked the Patriots in Arizona.  Certainly one of the quirkiest nights on a personal level...

Because, well, I wasn't even in the country for this game.  Studying abroad in Dublin, we had to settle for a 11:00pm kickoff local time.  This was a Boston University-organized program, so needless to say there were plenty of Patriots boosters that were excited to make history.  Sensing an inevitable spell of darkness in the football world that would be stamped for eternity, me and the few Giant backers decided to get significantly....handicapped, before the late-night kickoff.  

So when I say that game felt like a dream is only half-a-joke.  There is just something to be said when you're resigned to a certain outcome and the miraculous happens.  Not resigned in the sense of 'aw shucks, they sure seem overmatched.  This will be tough' sense, either.  The Giants were a beadle playing chicken with a freight train.  All I remember is creating a one-man mosh pit, bouncing around and making the referee signal for 'completion' after...ya know.   But you know all that.  Again, I'm not Giants fan.  But Manning, Tyree, Tuck and the others gave the football world an invaluable gift that will never depreciate in value.  And unfortunately for the two guys sitting on the ground in this video (gotta admire their composure), the gift cannot be returned. 

Question #8: If it does...everyone better save this game to their DVR with the setting 'Never Erase.'  


Question #9: What's Your Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet? 
Prop bets are weird things that people can actually bet on for the Super Bowl.  Seriously weird things.  "Will Madonna Wear Fishnet Stockings at Any Time During Her Performance" type-of weird.

Answer #9: I would say the biggest slam-dunk bet would be Jason Pierre-Paul having more tackles than Kyle Arrington.  I will also take Ahmad Bradshaw receiving yards (-2.5) over Chris Bosh points against the Raptors.  Chris Bosh sucks.


Question #10: It's Been 2500 Words.  You Must be Getting Hungry.  Winner and MVP Please?

Answer #10: Based on my reputation, this seems like a 'how' answer more than a 'who' answer.  I have been queasy in the intestinal region ever since Cundiff's field goal sailed wide.  Deep down, I believe the Pats would have handled the 49ers with ease had San Fran advanced to this game (marking the 6,000th and final time I insult the 49ers this year.)  But here we are, Giants-Pats in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII and a rematch of a regular season game this season.  That game this year was actually 0-0 at the half if you can believe it.  

Simply put, I think this one's getting a little crazy.  Each team comes out guns a'blazing, and neither really slows down after that.  I think Brady and Manning easily combine for over 600 yards, and this game easily tops the Vegas 'over' of 54 points.  Receivers running open for both teams all over the field and it takes the form of a Division II college game.

But in the end, the Giants just force 1-2 more punts than New England does.  Sacks will do that for a team.  Eli doesn't exactly out-duel Brady, but he more than holds his own as headlines of 'ELIte' litter headlines across the whole country.  He will not be MVP though, as Hakeem Nicks compiles other-worldly stats as Manning's go-to guy all game.  I don't know if it will feature the frenzied finishes of two weeks ago...but I kinda sorta think I know who's coming out on top.

Giants 35, Patriots 32


Hey, thanks for reading everyone.  Feel free to leave your own predictions for the game in the comments section of this page or Facebook.  Whoever guesses the closest wins...I dunno...how about I mail you the cover of Monday morning's New York Post autographed by me?  Sentimental value > financial value.  At least that's what I continue to tell myself...




 

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