2011 Gypsy Baseball Preview- Part 4
The clock is ticking, folks. At the start of writing this post, we're about 16 hours from the first pitch of baseball 2011. Three more divisions to go, including both on the Eastern side. Crunch time is Conor time...
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
CHICAGO CUBS
LINEUP: Intriguing, to say the least. For better or worse, this group has a little bit of everything. There are unproven guys that may be on the verge of a breakout (Colvin and Castro.) There are solid hitters in their prime (Ramirez and Soto.) Lastly, there are boom-or-bust veterans that may be dazzling or disastrous (Soriano and Pena.) They're not spectacular, and they're not terrible. A decent everyday lineup.
PITCHING: At first glance, you're unable to find a legitimate, bonafide ace in the group. But upon further evaluation, there's no glaring black holes, either. Dempster, Zambrano, and Wells are guys you reluctantly take in a fantasy draft while grumbling to yourself...but then again, there's a reason you take them. Matt Garza can still build on his already-impressive repertoire, making this staff serviceable-at-worst. I'd say this staff (and lineup as well) have all the makings of a .500 squad.
CHANCE TO WIN NL CENTRAL: 15%
CINCINNATI REDS
LINEUP: The Reds won this division last year on the backs of these guys. Led by reigning MVP and triple crown threat Joey Votto, most of the crew is back to mash again in 2011. Bruce, Rolen and Stubbs all provided 20+ home run numbers in 2010. Phillips and Gomes also did great across the board. As a whole, they may have played a bit over their heads last season, but Cincy should still boast an impressive lineup even if there is a slight regression.
PITCHING: Though the lineup was tremendous last season, you don't win 91 games unless you have some arms. Cueto and the oft-injured Volquez are entering their primes, so big things are being expected from both of them. Arroyo keeps chugging along with good-not-great stats, but he's exactly what you need from a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Homer Bailey may never fulfill all the hype that came with him, but he doesn't have to be Superman for the Reds. A consistent (healthy) innings-eater will do just fine. From top to bottom, this is an aura of injury concerns. But there's no reason to think Cincy takes a huge step back from 2010.
CHANCE TO WIN NL CENTRAL: 25%
HOUSTON ASTROS
LINEUP: Jeez. The days of the Killer B's are long gone (unless you're a HUGE fan of Barmes and Bourn.) Hunter Pence is a real nice player, and Carlos Lee was tremendous in his heyday. But all-in-all, this is a group of supplementary players with no true stud that brings them all together. I won't preach anymore about this lineup...the team was 76-86 last season and doesn't look like even that will be matched in 2011.
PITCHING: Now if Houston was to somehow contend this season, it would be because of their arms. Myers and Rodriguez may not always be pretty, but there's plenty of teams that would like them as their 1-2. There's no doubt that Happ has ability--he just needs to bring some consistency to it. Ol' reliable Met Nelson Figeroa brings more than you'd expect to the back of the group. I think this group gets overlooked...but they'll need to be downright heroic for this team to sniff .500
CHANCE TO WIN NL CENTRAL: 5%
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
LINEUP: Impressive. Very impressive. They have a nice two tier system of superstars (Braun and Fielder) along with stars (Hart, Weeks, McGehee.) If Carlos Gomez ever finds the ability to get on base, they're lethal. But even if that doesn't happen, the Brewers don't have to look up to any lineup in this division. Nyjer Morgan was in interesting last-second acquisition that may pay serious dividends if he stops being a psychopath.
PITCHING: Greinke's injury put a silly damper on some pretty lofty expectations. He should still have a tremendous season pitching in the National League. Gallardo is a stud as well. Every baseball guru believes that Marcum will have a career year now that he's out of the AL East. You know what you're getting with Wolf by now. As long as Greinke (and Marcum as well) can stay healthy for a full slate, nothing should stop the Brewers from being serious contenders.
CHANCE TO WIN NL CENTRAL: 30%
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
LINEUP: Usually an offensive wasteland...but there are actually some guys to watch for in 2011. Andrew McCutchen has developed wonderfully into their franchise player. But the Pirates (and fantasy players) are also quite intrigued by the abilities of guys like Alvarez, Walker, and Tabata. Garrett Jones is quite underrated as well. Like the Astros, they seem to be a nice group in desperate need of a bonafide slugger to legitimize them. But this group looks a lot prettier than Houston's.
PITCHING: Just when the offense gets you a little excited...you get to these guys. Maholm is the ace by default. But his ERA last season was over 5. That should say everything you need to know about the rest of the staff. It will be a long year for the bullpen...where Meek and Hanrahan are reliable when saves are actually attainable.
CHANCE TO WIN NL CENTRAL: 5%
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
LINEUP: When you have Pujols, you're going to be an impressive lineup no matter who's around him. But the Cards actually have some real nice players around Albert in the lineup. Holliday has had MVP-caliber seasons lately and is still in his prime. Rasmus is a very popular breakout candidate. Berkman is definitely on the way down, but it was a good gamble for the Cards to take in the middle of their lineup. Theriot and Freese won't hurt them, either. Top-to-bottom, they're about even with Milwaukee. In this case, tie will always go to whoever has Pujols.
PITCHING: The loss of Wainwright is catastrophically devastating. Instead of a terrifying 1-2 punch with him and Carpenter, this staff now becomes Carpenter and a bunch of shrugs. Yes, Jaime Garcia had a stellar rookie campaign. Westbrook and Lohse are capable. But without their true ace, the Cardinals have gone from slam-dunk divisional contender to wild card hopeful.
CHANCE TO WIN NL CENTRAL: 20%
Eastern divisions to be posted soon. Thanks for reading!
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