Welcome back to the blog, everyone.  The long wait is just about over for Super Bowl XLIV between the Colts and the Saints.  As of today, it's been a long twelve days since meaningful football was played.  We all suffered through the Pro Bowl (unless you were smart and ponied up the cash to buy the Royal Rumble.  Edge comes out of nowhere and now he will headline Wrestlemania.  But I digress.)  If the Jets has actually qualified, I shudder to think how long these days would feel.  But fear not, Colts and Saints fans.  The time is (almost) now.  Keeping with what we've done all season, now's the perfect time to kick-off the final football preview of the season (you might want to keep some tissues handy.)

Before we get to the meat and potatoes, I'll use this spot as a reminder to the ten people besides myself still in the running for the contest:  Miles, Senior Regan, Gordon, Seitz, Mickey, McShane, Zach, Roberts, Dooley, and Canders.  Make sure you choose one of the four options (Saints by >5; Saints by <5' Colts by >5; Colts by <5) and get them to us if you haven't already done so.  Keep in mind there should be a little bit of strategy to your pick as well.  You're going to see my pick at the end of this preview.  If you are behind me in the standings and you pick the same option as me, THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN WIN.  So if you're towards the bottom, try to get into people's heads and choose something that you think they won't choose.  The further down you are, the more off-the-radar you'll have to go.  And be sure to submit your final score in case we need a tiebreaker.  Get it?  Got it?  Good.

Now on to the game.  If we rewind time back to December 13th, these two teams were undoubtedly on a Super Bowl collision course.  It was quite simple: the Colts were 13-0; the Saints were 13-0.  Two perfect teams.  Sure, both teams had their sqeakers and ugly games.  But their ability to comeback and/or get the lucky breaks further enhanced the mindset that "this was their year."  Well, it's been wee documented what happened to the teams after their historical starts.  The Colts rested their big boys so they would be fresh for the playoffs, and the Saints let one abrupt loss turn into a mini-tailspin to end the year.  All in all, your two Super Bowl finalists combined to finish the regular season with a 1-5 record.

The ugly end to the regular season didn't affect the team's playoff seeds, as both enjoyed the luxury of a 1st-round bye.  Doubts about the losing skids combined with their opponents gaining absurd momentum led to many thinking that Indy and New Orleans might be out in the second round.  Well the Saints pulverized Arizona and the Colts were all-business as they polished off Baltimore.  A week later, the Colts rallied to send the Jets home, and the Saints escaped with a miracle win on the back of their game MVP, Minnesota QB Brett Favre.

So there's your pregame buildup.  It probably would have been better if I told you to play NFL Films montage music and read it out loud.  I'll make a note for next year.  But here's everything you need to know about Super Bowl XLIV, including the team that will hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the game. 

          "You KNOW I'm bringin' this one home, Indy!"            "Carlton still believes in my Saints.  Why not you?"



New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5)
Sunday, 6:30 PM

I'm not sure what to say about the point spread.  I understand that the Colts won their game against the Jets one way (figure out and trample the #1 ranked ranked defense while coming back from an 11-point deficit to win handily) and the Saints beat the Vikings another way (get thoroughly outplayed, rely on Favre to swashbuckle his way into a loss.)  The opening line had the Colts favored by 4, and my initial hunch was that it would swing a bit toward the Saints.  Wrong again, Conor.  The betting contingent is backing the Colts, and they are usually very smart people.

But let's break this down position-by-position, and see if we find any epiphanies relating to this game.  The same parameters will be used (slight edge, moderate edge, Manute Bol edge, or even.)  I'll have the much-awaited final score prediction at the very end.  Enjoy...

Quarterback
The marquee matchup.  Drew Brees against Peyton Manning.  Brees is a stats machine that uses every receiver he's got and is the ultimate Joe Cool under pressure.  Manning is a formation-processing, perfectionist robot that is three years removed from his first Super Bowl championship.  Brees has a playoff record of 5-5 for his career, but his stats surrounding the record are preposterously good.  Manning had a rocky start to his postseason days (thank the Pats for that) but he's come on in recent years and turned his career around with his '06 title.  That championship is the reason he gets the slight nod.  But make no mistake: Brees' fans and teammates wouldn't rather have anybody else leading them other than Big Drew.
SLIGHT EDGE: COLTS

Running Backs
Since ESPN and everyone else has two full weeks to cover this one game, it's inevitable that every storyline gets beated to death (all the Dwight Freeney talk is actually making my ankle start to hurt.)  In the constant effort to find a 'new angle,' Reggie Bush's name is popping up quite a bit.  After all, he will be the most natually-exciting and explosive player in this Super Bowl.  The majority of pundits and fans can see this game turning into Brees/Manning throw-off.  But if it doesn't, Bush and Pierre Thomas give the Saints more options and versatility than the Colts' Joe Addai and Donald Brown.  Take this edge with a grain of salt though...it's about 500 times less meaningful than the quarterback matchup in this game.
MODERATE EDGE: SAINTS

Wide Receivers
I love the Saints wideouts.  Most of them are just explosive athletes are speedsters that are made into quality players by Brees.  The quarterback seems to have the same trust in all his receivers. and none of them ever let him down.  But the Colts game against the Jets was just stunning.  It wasn't so much what Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie did; it's what Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark didn't do.  If someone had told me that the Jets would score 17 points while holding Clark/Wayne to 90 yards and one touchdown COMBINED, I would have started buying some AFC Champions merchandise.  But Collie and Garcon were there for them, and the Saints have nobody close to Darelle Revis that can eliminate Wayne from this one.  Four absolute nightmares that New Orleans must try to cover.  Eesh.
MODERATE EDGE: COLTS

Offensive/Defensive Lines
Why hello, Mr. Freeney.  The Colts playmaker has dominated these past couple of weeks, and with good reason.  Freeney has been one of the top-3 pass rushers of the past decade and a hobbled ankle is a terror for someone with his style.  Apparently it's getting better and better, but very few people expect him at 100% come gametime.  There's talk he may only play on 3rd downs.  A lost/hurting Freeney allows the Saints and their great offensive line to shift the schemes toward Robert Mathis on the other side.  Peyton Manning takes .04 seconds to throw the ball, so the Saints defensive line vs. Colts offensive line will likely be a moot argument.  New Orleans will have to rely on blitzes, and see if they can succeed where the Jets failed. If Freeney were healthy, this one definitely swings to Indy.  But Brees will now have some time to throw.
EVEN

Linebackers/Defensive Backs
This one's tough to figure out.  I'd love to give the Saints the edge at LB due to my unhealthy lust of Jonathan Vilma.  But the Colts looked like they had four Roadrunners out there chasing down the Jets two weeks ago.  What they lack in size they make up for with quickness and sure tackling.  Gotta give Indy that edge.  Now to the secondary.  Quite frankly, the question becomes "whose defensive backs will be more embarassed by the opposing quarterback?"  Though Darren Sharper's gotten a few picks for them, the Saints are nothing special and showed it against Minnesota two weeks ago.  But look at the Colts two weeks ago.  I have all the love in the world for Mark Sanchez, but he looked like a cross between Joe Montana and John Wayne against the Colts pass defense.  Yeah, yeah, the Colts were playing for the run all game.  But this was MARK SANCHEZ!  Slicing and dicing the Colts all game long.  Drew Brees must be looking at those tapes and salivating.
SLIGHT EDGE: SAINTS  

Special Teams/Coaching/Intangibles
A lot of factors go into this category.  For special teams, Mr. Bush gives an immediate edge to the Saints.  That's the easy one.  Now onto coaching.  Sean Payton has been the co-savior (along w/Brees) of New Orleans football.  He's an offensive guru and it seems his players love playing for him.  Jim Caldwell is in the Super Bowl in his first year as head coach.  He's never said a word and his facial features are frozen throughout the entire game, but you can't argue with the results.  Then there's the intangibles.  The Saints look to be the Intangibles Dream Team.  They never won a Super Bowl, they feel their time is now, and the whole city (and most of the country) is backing them.  The Colts have the NFL's best player at the top of his game trying to cement his legacy as an all-time legend.  In games that the starters play from beginning to end, the team is 16-0.  They haven't lost.  Period.  If the Colts hadn't won just three years ago, I would probably give the edge to them because of the whole "Peyton's time is now" mantra.  But even with two weeks to think about it, there's no edge I can give here.
EVEN

The Perfiction
Well this is pretty emotional.  My very last perfiction of the NFL season.  I better make it count.  My first NFL blog for my old site was on August 26th, 2009.  The preview lasted all the way until September 10th, when I perficted the Saints beating the Chargers in the Super Bowl, 27-20.  Needless to say, this is by far the closest I've ever come on such a prediction.  Does that sway me in this one?  Absolutely.  But why not, New Orleans.  You've got Carlton freakin' Banks on your side already.  This game will certainly be fun to watch.  Manning and Brees will deliver on what's been a massive buildup.  I would have been worried about the Saints had Sanchez not burned the Colts two weeks ago.  That's the 'epiphany' I previewed before.  The teams trade blows the entire game, with very few punts.  In the script everybody craves, Manning will have the ball down by 4 points with 3 minutes remaining.  He marches down the field easily and appears as if he'll take the lead.  Unfortunately though, he throws an ill-advised pass across the middle that's intercepted by...Jonathan Vilma.  Brees takes a few knees and wins the Super Bowl MVP that he deserves.  WHO DAT?

SAINTS 38, COLTS 34


So I'm hereby signed up for the "Saints by less than 5" group in the contest.  Make sure to get your picks in, with the final score included.  And anyone that picks something like "Colts by less than 5" and then has the gall to send their final score as something like 'Colts 28, Saints 20' will be immediately disqualified.  Ok, not really.  But make your score correlate with your pick.  Please.

And most importantly, ENJOY THE GAME!