Playoff picks: Divisional round fun

A final reminder to submit your playoff picks before 4:30 tomorrow, people. These games count for two points this weekend, so even if you stunk it up in the wild card round, you've still got a chance to redeem yourselves.

This weekend, Conor and I will be fleeing our delightful suburbs to spend the weekend in New York with our old college buddies. That statement just made me feel really old. For you, though, that means we probably won't be posting everybody's picks until Sunday night or Monday.

So onto the football. First off, I'd like to point out to all you Jet fans that everything from here on out is simply icing on the cake. The Jets are proving to the rest of the NFL that they really are going to be a force to be reckoned with, now and especially in the future. Even if they lose Sunday, as they probably will, you've got a great, young defense that you can build around for years to come.

But despite the way they've played, Jet fans, I don't think you can expect to win Sunday. Don't forget that San Diego hasn't lost since mid-October, and they haven't scored less than 20 points in a game all year.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 Saturday, FOX

The good news for Arizona:
They won last weekend.

The bad news for Arizona:
They gave up 45 points, and now they play the league's best offense.

The good news for New Orleans:
They're lost only three times all season and they're at home.

The bad news for New Orleans:
They lost their final three games to close the season.

This is the first in a weekend full of coin-flip matchups. Arizona lost six games, but they're experienced and they're getting coming off of a huge win last week over Green Bay; New Orleans lost only three times all year but they haven't won a game in over a month. This game has back-and-forth shootout written all over it.

Even though New Orleans is the solid favorite here, I'm a little skeptical about the NFC South champs. I don't buy that teams can simply turn on the switch and start playing great after playing like crap for a month. Arizona seems to have that magic back; Kurt Warner was unbelievable in the snippets I saw of last week's game. Plus, New Orleans isn't a playoff tested team, something that's always a factor in these games.

Also, remember last year's playoffs? In last year's divisional round, Carolina came in as a 2 seed with a bye week and hosted the Cardinals, who had just squeaked by the Falcons the week before, and the Panthers proceeded to get smacked upside the head. Deja vu? Not quite a smackdown, but I think the birds take this one comfortably thanks to a combination of experience and New Orleans' recent slump. They'll out-Saint the Saints.

Arizona by 10


Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 Saturday, CBS

The Ravens screwed around with most playoff picks last week; their win over the Patriots was easily the upset of the weekend. So the question is, do the Ravens have it in them to upset a second heavily-favored team? Could they be this year's Cardinals?

I'm a firm believer that Baltimore's defense is still amongst the most overrated players/teams/groups in sports, along with Sidney Crosby, Landon Donovan, Andy Roddick pre-2009, and Eli Manning pre- 2008 Super Bowl. And last weekend's scoreline, 33-14, will probably keep people falsely thinking that Baltimore's D is as good as it was for much of last decade.

The truth is, Baltimore's defense is now, at best, solidly inconsistent. They allowed 23 points or more in six of their regular season games, and they did turn in some great performances as well- but they were against the likes of the Lions, Browns (twice), Broncos (awful offense), Bears and Raiders. Last weekend, the defense came out with a great game plan and executed to perfection, keeping Tom Brady off-balance for most of the first half and even made him throw a JaMarcus Russell-like interception in the 2nd quarter.

But, as the Jets found out in week 2, a Patriots team without Wes Welker is a far less menacing group, and the game would've surely been more competitive had Welker played.

Now, Baltimore faces a battle-tested Colts team that has won close game after close game all year long. But frankly, I don't even think this one will be close- Peyton Manning and company will likely score early and often, forcing Joe Flacco to have to go to the air and likely limiting the contributions from Baltimore's excellent run game. And if it is a close one, I trust Indy.

Indianapolis by 13

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings, 1:05 Sunday, FOX

The game of the week (outside of New York, of course). No questions asked.

Listening to sports pundits all week long, this game seems to have everybody baffled beyond belief. I listened to 1050 ESPN's Brandon Tierney talk Giants' insider Ralph Vacchiano into picking the Cowboys this morning. I've never heard that happen before. You know that if stuffy NFL insiders can be talked into switching a pick on a game live on-air, it means nobody has too much of a clue as to what's going to happen.

Strangely enough, while it's a coin toss type of game, I don't think it will be close either way- if Minnesota shows up and plays their A game, I think the Cowboys could be in for a long afternoon. If Minnesota tunes out, even for a half, Dallas will win comfortably. Tony Romo is playing well right now, and Minnesota's pass defense has looked shaky at best down the stretch, most notably allowing the otherwise God-awful Jay Cutler to pick them apart in a huge Monday night game Week 16. And if both teams play well, Minnesota's the better team, and at home, I think they win comfortably if they play well. But I don't think that's happening.

We all know how Minnesota struggled mightily down the stretch, but they managed to re-coup just in time with a 44-7 thrashing of the little Giants in the final game of the season. But I don't like Minnesota in this game because their defense, aside from the Giants game, has been struggling for most of the second half of the season. Their secondary is mediocre at best- and that doesn't bode well for a team going up against Tony Romo.

More importantly, however, is the fact that Dallas is hotter than Megan Fox right now. Romo is going to pick apart the Minnesota secondary in this game, almost unquestionably. The only way I see Minnesota winning this game is in a shootout, and while the Vikings should score plenty of points, the Cowboys' defense is playing well enough as a unit that they should hold off the Vikings. 

That's simply my rationale to make me feel better. But this game is more of a gut feeling game for me.

Dallas, as well documented, has had the world of pressures on them all season long, and now that their biggest monkey has been lifted off their back (that monkey being that they hadn't won a playoff game in 14 years), the Cowboys have to feel more confident than ever now. I think Mr. Romo will help give Brett Favre an extra few weeks to do commercials this offseason before he retires and unretires.

Another little sidenote in Dallas' favor: recent playoff history has been on the road team's side in divisional round games.  Three of the four bye teams lost in the divisional round last year, and two of the four bye teams lost the year before that. 

Dallas by 10

J-E-T-S at San Diego Chargers, 4:40 Sunday, CBS

I kinda gave away my pick in my intro, but let's make something clear: if the Jets can hold San Diego's offense under 20 points, they can win this game. As I said before, the Chargers haven't been held under 20 points all year long, so that's going to be a tall task for the Jets and their D-Rex.

But that's probably not going to happen. The Chargers are too good, too multi-faceted and the Jets' offense simply isn't good

Here's what I see as the most likely scenario for a Jets' win:
-Early touchdown that silences the crowd
-Revis Island and company can turn the Chargers' offense one-dimensional
-Some sick special teams play (Brad Smith?)
-A Jets' running game that's effective most of the game

That's a lot of things to happen, and I just don't see the Jets doing that. The Chargers simply have too many weapons on offense, and the Jets' offense isn't going to win you a game by itself. 

This pick makes my blood boil. I hate everything about the Chargers, mostly because of the divisional rivalry they have with my Broncos, but as I've pointed out many times before, they're a very hateable franchise. They're always so hyped up, but they always blow it. Phil Rivers is an overcompetitive ass. LT has been overrated for years. And the Jets are cuter than a newborn right now. But dammit, San Diego's really good. But let me point out that I really, really hate this pick, and I'm only doing it because I'm very sure this is going to happen.

Prove me wrong, Marky Mark.

Chargers by 6

 

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