After blazing through the NFC preview yesterday, we now move on to the games that will have a little more 'pull' in the New York area.  The AFC featured a wild card weekend that was pretty, well, wild.  Two decisive victories for underdogs playing on the road.  The question now is whether the upstart Jets and Ravens can have repeat performances against better competition. 

Because the Colts and Chargers are all that and more.  Both squads have had winning streaks of 11 or more this season, and both have elite passing attacks.  In my mind, there are an alarming amount of people that are undervaluing (think that's a word) the Colts right now because of their decision to rest/heal for the playoffs.  If 2006 never happened and Peyton Manning was still ring-less, maybe I would jump on that bandwagon.  But I firmly believe that this team knows what it's doing, and they have the best player in the league guiding them.  The Chargers have taken down all comers on their blazing streak.  They have not lost a game since October 19th (take a moment to think about that) and are finally trying to get over their notorious playoff struggles.

So where do we lean here?  The Jets and Ravens, who looked great last week?  Or the Colts and Chargers, who have looked great all season?  Understandably, both home teams are favored by about a touchdown.  If Indy and San Diego are able to play their games (throw, throw, throw) they will probably have their spreads covered by halftime.  But if these Jets and Ravens can maintain their running, clock-controlling, defensive styles...the AFC's elite are going to get all they can handle.

But enough chat.  Here's who's (maybe) gonna win.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Saturday, 8 PM

I must say, it has shocked me how much love the Ravens are getting this week.  When you think about it, you can make a compelling case (The Colts needed Belichick's bone-headed 4th down call to barely squeak by the Pats, and we just destroyed the Pats like they were an NFL Asia team.)  Fair enough.  But this team decided to rest its starters after 14 and a half games, and their true team was never beaten.  The Ravens were an up and down 9-7 team this year that played by far its best game last week in Foxboro.  Was it just one game in which they played out of their minds?  Or is the defense peaking at the right time to carry this team very, very far?  It's a difficult question, but many people think they know the answer.  Because in a lot of circles, the Ravens aren't just being picked to cover that spread.  They're being picked to go to the AFC Title game next week.

The Ravens Can Win If...
they plant a seed of doubt into the Colts and their fans.  Look what they did last week to a Pats team that thought they were ready to make a Super Bowl run...After the first play (Rice's 80 yard run) that stadium was dead.  You could hear a pin drop.  Now fast forward to Indy, where the fans have been irate ever since the Colts decided to rest and skip the chance for an undefeated season.  They want to believe it was for the better.  But if Baltimore does something big early on, you can just imagine all the panicked fans in 'I told you so!" mode at the game.  It will still take more than that to rattle Mr. Manning, but if the Ravens can deflate the fans and players early a-la new England last week, this 9-7 team may be playing for a Super Bowl opportunity next week.

The Colts Can Win If... 
they show up, and don't take anything for granted.  If you overlook anything about the Ravens, they'll burn you.  Last week, Tom Brady wasn't even able to throw passes away, because Baltimore defenders were coming out of nowhere to intercept it.  The Ravens know they're underdogs, so they're going to be hyper-aggressive on defense to try to steal this game via turnovers.  The Colts have the weapons to take the shorter gains over the risky bombs...something New England refused to do once they fell behind.  If the Colts play their game and manage to get a 7-10 point lead, it will force Joe Flacco to try to beat them through the air.  Judging from his performance last week, things will spiral out of control quickly for Baltimore.

The Perfiction... 
Deep down, I think the Ravens treated last week's game like their Super Bowl.  They've had a bitter past few years with the Patriots, as New England always seemed to get the good breaks and referee calls in their favor.  They waited a long time for their moment of glory, and they basked in every moment of it.  Nevertheless, I don't think they're ready for this Colts team.  Manning, Clark, Wayne, and all the starters will be eager to silence their doubters.  Baltimore will probably keep it close in the first quarter or so, but it's only a matter of time until Indy burns you.  Joe Flacco will have his problems keeping the Ravens afloat, and the Colts will pull away in the 4th.
COLTS 27, RAVENS 14



New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers (-7)
Sunday, 4:30 PM

Well, well, well.  Oh, the tangled webs we weave.  Back in September, San Diego was my pick to reach the Super Bowl.  After a rocky start, they became the NFL's hottest team by finishing the regular season with 11 straight wins.  Their quarterback was right there in the MVP discussion.  Their receivers are Yao Ming-esque.  Their defense has underrated playmakers. 

So how in the wide world of Rex Ryan's gut can the Jets pull this one off?  Well there's two games that the Jets can look at to give them some hope.  Number one: the Jets' defeat against the Saints in early October.  Sure, they lost the game.  But they held the New Orleans offense (who I see superior to San Diego's) completely in check.  Sanchez gave 14 points to the Saints on his own, and the defense stifled a New Orleans team that was soaring at the time.  Second, the Chargers-Bengals game less than a month ago.  The same Cincy team the Jets whipped on the last two weeks hung on with the Chargers until the very end (San Diego kicked a field goal at the buzzer.) 

So in case you're keeping score, I'm referencing a Jets loss and a Chargers win in an attempt to give the Jets hope.  Hm...  It'll have to do.  But it's clear that the Jets truly believe they can win this game, and that San Diego was a better matchup for them than Indy would have been.  So keeping that in mind, how could this week get any better for them?

The Jets Can Win If...
they hold Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates to 150 yards and 1 touchdown combined.  The key to this game is New York's attempt to keep the Chargers' two biggest receivers within reason.  Yes, this means Sproles may burn them a couple of times out of the backfield.  Yes, Malcolm Floyd man sneak in a long catch.  But Philip Rivers will look to his most trusted receivers throughout this game, and the Chargers will get frustrated if Jets defenders manage to blanket them.  So Darelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes...it's your time to shine.  Frustrate the Chargers into finding secondary weapons or running the ball, and the Jets will find themselves exactly where they want to be.

The Chargers Can Win If...
they stifle the Jets running attack early.  In the Jets' dream world, Mark Sanchez will not throw more than ten passes in the first half.  But if Jets can't establish the line of scrimmage and go three-and-out continually in the first half, New York will have no choice but to open the cage and let their young puppy go wild.  The Jet defense will already have their hands full trying to stop the Chargers conventionally.  If Sanchez throws interceptions and gives San Diego a short field, it's all over.  Stopping the Jets cold means making Sanchez the focal point.  And that's something that will have the Charger defense drooling.

The Perfiction...
If you came here thinking I was going to pick the Chargers...I dunno what to tell you.  Either you haven't read the blog very long or you drastically overestimate my objectivity.  For me, this game comes down to two players that may be playing their final game in a Jets uniform.  Braylon Edwards and Kerry Rhodes.  These often-criticized, highly-inconsistent players will be focal points of whether the Jets stay alive.  Edwards makes the hard part of receiving (getting open downfield) look so easy, but always bones the simple catch.  Rhodes, who has gone from beloved fan-favorite to seemingly-disinterested afterthought this year, will have to overwhelming task of containing Antonio Gates.  I think the Jets will run successfully and the Chargers will throw successfully.  So it will be the little things that count.  Whether it be Edwards catching the deep ball he is prone to drop, or Rhodes breaking up a key pass on third down, these things will help decide the game.  Surprise, surprise, I think things bounce Gang Green's way.  Lord help us...
JETS 26, CHARGERS 24

Thanks for reading everybody, and get those picks in.  We'll see you back here on Monday.  Enjoy the weekend!