certificate!

So I've been avoiding football the past few days, I've been trying, in vain, to block out the memory of Broncos Blowfest '09-'10. I spent much of the week watching Jersey Shore and I've also gotten into Real World DC this past week. For those of you males who don't like the Real World, at least watch the show for Emily; she's a total smoke show.

I had technical issues posting this yesterday morning, but I'll just get these in before Jets kickoff Saturday afternoon. Comment away, and enjoy the games!

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:05 ET Saturday, NBC

The first pick I ever made on this blog which helped make me realize how unbelievably intelligent and generally superior to the rest of mankind I truly am was the brilliant pick of Dallas over New Orleans Week 15. Everybody, and I mean everybody (including the Dallas media that ripped coach Wade Phillips a new one in a press conference that week) thought America's team was done. Remember the grave people dug the Cowboys after they lost in the Meadowlands Week 13? Yeah, I do too.

Tony Romo has thrown 26 touchdowns to 9 interceptions and owns a 97.6 rating this season. People took great pleasure in vilifying this guy all season long, and when it's counted most, with critics hating on him at their loudest pitch, he's stepped up big time.

For all you Romophobs out there, here are some stats on Tony's performance down the stretch:

-He's thrown exactly two interceptions in the past six games
-He's completed nearly 70% of his passes in that same stretch
-Approxmately 93% of Dallas females would commit a felony to have dinner with him

I'm still a little unsure on Dallas' defense, but I'm equally uneasy about Philly's. I think Romo and Marion Barber are playing better, at least right now, than Donovan McNabb and a recently healthy Brian Westbrook. The Eagles have to find a way to get DeSean Jackson the ball to have a chance in this one, and judging from last week's game, Dallas knows this too, and they'll stop him again.

Cowboys by 10

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:40 ET Sunday, FOX

Looking at the early returns on the pick 'em contest, people seem to think the Cardinals will once again limp into the playoffs and make another postseason run.

Yes, Kurt Warner has been to the playoffs a million times before with a huge success rate. Yes, their running game is better this season than last with Beanie Wells. And yes, they were a ridiculous catch away from winning the Super Bowl last season and they basically have the same team this year. But two important things are different between this season and last, and they both hurt the red birds:

1) As Conor would say, never, ever forget the element of surprise. Even by the NFC Championship game, people still weren't buying the Cardinals. They were a 9-7 team in the league's worst division, with a nasty 2-4 stretch to end the regular season. Nobody expected the Cardinals to do much last postseason, and that helped them big time.

I'm a believer that being an underdog is a huge asset for the underdog team in sports. Do you think if George Mason, with the exact same team that they had in that miracle run, had been a 2 or 3 seed instead of an 11 seed that they would've made the Final Four four years ago? Or that Greece would've won the Euro Cup in 2004 had they not been dismissed as a 'lucky' team (Greece were huge underdogs, defeating host nation and heavy favorites Portugal in the finals)? Or that the Jets would've won the 1969 Super Bowl over the Baltimore Colts? I seriously doubt it. Not being taken seriously not only (generally) negatively affects the favorite's preparation and focus; it lights a fire under the underdog, more importantly.  Usually sheer talent alone will get the favorite the victory, of course, but when the talent gap isn't that great, simply being an underdog can easily make up that talent gap. And I think that's a huge part of why Arizona did what they did last season.

Nobody's making that mistake again this season, though.

2) Arizona is pretty banged up. CB Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, WR Anquan Boldin, and the team's co-sack leader, Calais Campbell, are all hurt, though likely to play. Those are key guys, people. Last year, Arizona enjoyed terrific health, and in the NFL, that inevitably plays a huge role in many successful seasons. 

Against a team like the Packers, the Cardinals are going to need to not only play their best, but they're probably going to need those guys to be 100% to have a shot. 

I'm smelling the cheese right now. Green Bay is easily the most underrated team in either conference heading into the playoffs. Anybody know that they have the NFL's 2nd best defense? Or 6th best offense? And psychotic fans who just might a quarter of University of Phoenix Stadium Sunday?

I think the Packers could surprise people and go far, like Super Bowl far. You bet I just said that (oh no he din't!). If the Pack win this weekend, I'll probably pick them to take down the Saints the following weekend.

I'm honestly not that sure what to make of this game. The main match-up here will be Baltimore's offense versus New England's defense; which would put, at least from what I've seen, an inconsistent Joe Flacco up against a shaky New England secondary. Ray Rice is having a fine season, and whatchu talkin' about Willis McGahee is a great compliment to Rice, but it's going to be all about what Flacco can do to keep the Patriots honest that will determine the outcome of this game.

New England will put up a healthy number of points against a long overrated Baltimore defense. I don't think there's much of a question there. Again, this game is all about what Baltimore will do on offense. 

This one on paper looks to me like it could be the shootout of the weekend. I'm picking this game, however, on nothing more than my gut, which tells me William Belichick will find a way to win. But again: keep your eye on Flacco, if he doesn't make mistake and he can make a big play or two, New England's in trouble. 

Jets fans are officially freaking out with joy. They've recklessly abandoned their traditionally negative mindsets even against historical wisdom and basic common sense. But hey, they might be onto something.

I like the Jets in this game for two reasons:

1) The Bengals aren't that good.

2) The Jets are pretty good.

Simple as that. The Jets are better than the Bengals. The Jets' defense is amongst the top ten in the NFL. Revis Island does exist. The Bengals took advantage of a highly overrated AFC North and beat the living crap out of them, and didn't do much else against the rest of the NFL (4-6 out of the division, yuck).

By the way, how bad were the Bengals' wide receivers on Sunday? Poor Carson Palmer. He was getting destroyed, hanging in there to make tough throws only for his slippery-handed receivers to drop the ball, literally and figuratively. That includes you, Chad "My need for attention is worse than that of an insecure 14-year-old girl" Johnson. 

With all of that said, here's my main concern for the Jets: Their offense is currently too obviously one-dimensional. The Jets really didn't allow Sanchez to throw the ball aside from screens and short outs Sunday- not that I disagreed with them- but you've got to think the Bengals are going to stack the box this week and concentrate on stopping Thomas Jones more. And if they can actually stop Jones, that means the game is in Mark Sanchez's hands. And if that's the case, that could mean anything, an almost assuredly negative anything.

This is my most hesitant pick this weekend, because I really don't trust the Jets on either side of the ball down the stretch. Look out if this one is within a touchdown late in the 4th quarter.

A side note for Jets fans: Darelle Revis is one player. May I repeat. Darelle Revis is not a combination of eleven, eight or even three human bodies. He is one. He's an absolutely fantastic player. But he doesn't single-handedly make the Jets' defense great. 

They're not an elite unit yet, people. Once they stop choking against good teams (Saints, Patriots games) or down the stretch (Falcons, Bills, Dolphins games), I'll buy the Jets' defense being an elite group. But they haven't done that yet. Ok, that's off my chest. You can now return to your regularly scheduled Revis hard-ons, Jet fans.