Welcome to the eve of the eve of Wild Card weekend!  Yesterday, we made our best attempt to break down the NFC's games.  The more I think about it, the more uncomfortable I get about taking the two publicly perceived 'underdogs.'  But I'm not going back now.  I put a moderate-to-above average thought into the games, and I'm stickin' to my guns.

Now on to the AFC side.  These are clearly the more intriguing games in the area, as the Jets and their rival Patriots will both play on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.  While New England will host the Ravens in their friendly confines, the Jets are off to chilly Cincinnati for their rematch with the Bengals.  Should be a fun AFC weekend.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Saturday, 4:30 PM

Well, well, well.  Jets head coach Rex Ryan didn't think it would happen.  Far less importantly, I didn't think it would happen, either.  But the Jets have made it to the playoff stage, and they believe they have a great chance to win.  Say what you want about its validity, but New York did indeed finish the season on a 5-1 run.  They finished the season with the best running game in the league, the best statistical defense in the league, and a passing game that causes far more squirms than cheers.  On the other side, the Bengals have had a pretty wacky season.  We can safely throw out that 37-0 loss to the Jets (I admit it.)  Besides that, they had some great wins early in the season (at Green Bay, Pittsburgh, at Baltimore) and some ugly losses late (at Oakland, destroyed at Minnesota.)  But they were flawless in their tough division, and that's usually the fast track to the playoffs.  Though the perception is sometimes that the Bengals pass, pass, pass on offense, that is hardly the reality this season.  Like Thomas Jones for the Jets, running back Cedric Benson is Plan A, B, and C for Cincy's attack.  He rested last week against the Jets.  New York better believe he will play and play often this time around.

The Jets Can Win If...
they are within a touchdown at halftime.  I firmly believe this will tell us all we need to know.  What will be Sanchez's reaction to the insane, hostile crowd?  Will the offensive line open up holes so Jones can get first downs?  How will the defense fare in stopping Benson?  All these questions should be adequately answered in the game's first 30 minutes.  The Bengals, though not dynamic on offense, will want to put Sanchez in a hole early and force him into mistakes.  If the running game and defense can keep this game close at the half, it will go leaps and bounds for the confidence of their young quarterback.

The Bengals Can Win If...
Conor picks the Jets.  Sorry, couldn't resist.  But all kidding about my crappy picking aside, the Bengals are favored for a reason.  Except for the ugly Raider loss and the debacle week 1 against Denver, there is really no glaring blemish on their season.  The Jets hold a lot of edges with team stats, but the 37-0 game last week skews both teams in the regard.  But there is one factor the stats can't measure...The Sanchize.  Rookie quarterbacks on the road is usually just football lingo for a kamikaze mission.  No rookie is safe from the crowd, the pressure, or the improved defenses that come in playoff time.  So to answer the question in italics, there is nothing I will say that you don't already know.  If the Bengals can force Sanchez into the mistakes he's repeated all season, it will be a long day for the Jets in Ohio.

The Perfiction...
I hate to say it, but this may be the 'snoozer' of the weekend.  Both teams are great in the run game, pretty inept in the pass game, and rely on lockdown defense.  It may be a little while until the game's first sustained drive, let alone the first points.  The Jets have no qualms with this, as they hope a slow start will help tame the rowdy Cincy faithful.  But hey, who am I kidding.  I could look at this one objectively, but that's not what you've come to expect.  Here's the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but R Truth.  The teams trade blows for a quarter or so, and Carson Palmer finds nothing through the air.  The key player for the Jets: Dustin Keller.  The Bengals have lockdown corners so life will be tough for Cotchery and Edwards.  But Sanchez will find his safety valve in the middle with Keller.  He has disappointed all season, and will finally show up when it matters most.  Sanchez will find him just enough times to move drives along and put points on the board.  The defense sheds "Armando Benitez" choke comparisons and holds off the Bengals in the end.  Count me in, I'm drunk on the Kool-Aid.
JETS 16, BENGALS 10



Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 PM

After a one-year playoff hiatus, the Pats are back hosting a playing at home in January.  Tom Brady and the Beli-Tron 5000 are back, but there is one key player the Pats will sorely miss this weekend.  Wes Welker tore up his knee in a relatively meaningless loss to the Texans on Sunday (just like I didn't blame the Colts for their philosophy, I don't blame the Pats here, either.)  Nevertheless, Welker led the team in reception and was a first down machine when New England needed them the most.  The injury has created two camps in football circles: The 'Julian Edelman is also a fast white guy and can step right in" camp and The "I will acknowledge that Julian Edelman is white, but there is no replacing Welker" camp.  The Ravens defense will respect the beliefs of the first camp, but they are hoping that the second camp is correct.  Long gone are the days of the dominating Baltimore defense.  They have dropped to the middle of the pack and will hope to stay afloat against Brady's assault.  On offense, the Ravens will look to Ray Rice to keep carrying them via the run and catching the ball.  The Pats defense has had a lot of stinky performances this year, so this one can heat up quickly in terms of scoring.

The Ravens Can Win If...
they hold Randy Moss under 150 yards.  Yes, it's a not-so-gaudy plateau to shoot for.  But it will be very difficult.  Edelman is a serviceable step-in for Welker.  But whenever Brady is in doubt, there is now only one guy on the field he will trust his playoff life with: #81.  Both teams will be successful running the ball and will cancel each other out.  But on the plays where Baltimore is expecting a run and dozes off in the secondary...it'll be Randy running wild to the end zone.  If the Ravens can keep Moss within reason, they can do this.

The Patriots Can Win If...
they force the Flac Attack to beat them.  As a rookie, Joe Flacco guided this Ravens team to the AFC Championship game.  I don't want to say he 'regressed' this year, but he has definitely had his sophomore moments.  The Ravens were a 9-7 team this year, and Ray Rice was the reason for most of their victories.  If the Pats can eliminate the young runner, Flacco will be in a world of trouble in Foxboro.  Derrick Mason is still a good receiver, but he's the only Raven wideout with more than 500 receiving yards.  New England can exploit them completely if Ray Rice is neutralized.

The Perfiction...
New England will indeed miss Welker, and their offense will be pretty choppy in this game.  Unfortunately for Baltimore, a choppy Pats offense is still better than an all-systems-go Ravens attack.  Both teams will score, but Brady will be able to score more frequently.  The Ravens defense will show their pride early, but will not be able to hang on late.  A couple of Belichick tricks will confuse Flacco into mistakes, too.  It's a long day for the Ravens in Foxboro.
PATRIOTS 27, RAVENS 13


All right, I'm all preview-ed out.  I hope you enjoy all the games.  For the record, I like Alabama to beat Texas tonight in the BCS Championship game.  Also, be sure to get your picks in for our playoff contest before Saturday's Jets kickoff.  Have a great weekend, everyone!