Sunday Smash- Week 17
Welcome back to the blog everyone. Hope this young 2010 has been good to you thusfar.
Week 17...it's a week that gives Las Vegas fits year after year. Will good teams play, or rest? Will so-so teams play with pride, or shut it down? Will crappy teams go for the always-elusive win, or tank for a better draft pick?
So many questions for this "purgatory" of an NFL week. Luckily I have the answers. They might not necessarily be correct, but you better believe that I have answers.
We'll make things easy in this picks section; starting with 'games that don't matter' and then moving on to the 'games that matter.' To save space up here, I will describe the games that matter beneath the pick. The first section will be harder to pick because of the questions listed above. But after a mediocre finish to the blog's picking section, there's nothing like a week 17 domination to get back in your good graces. So let's get to it. And in an extreme turn of events, we will START WITH the...
UPSET PERFICTION OF THE WEEK
Rams (+7.5) over 49ers
St. Louis, at 1-14, is already guarenteed a top-2 pick in next year's draft. When I picked the Rams to beat the 49ers earlier this season, San Fran eeked it out in the end to win 35-0. It's payback time in St. Louis. Rams head coach Stve Spagnuolo will have his troops going all-out, while the Niners will take a more 'indifferent' approach. Rams Nation celebrates a step forward at 2-14.
GAMES THAT DON'T MATTER
Bills (-8) over Colts
In case you didn't believe just how bizarre week 17 can be, here's a perfect line to start with. The 5-10 Bills favored to beat the 14-1 Colts by more than a touchdown. Everyone in New York saw what happens when Indy puts their backups in (they get demolished.) Buffalo will give their rabid fans a reason to cheer. Will Peyton Manning even be required to sit on the sideline in frigid Buffalo? I think the Colts would rather saddle him up in the locker room with a Snuggie and hot cocoa.
Panthers (-7) over Saints
The same story goes for this game. It can be safely assumed that a surging Carolina team, playing at home, will beat down New Orleans backups. Quarterback Matt Moore adds to his legend down south.
Bears (-3) over Lions
No, this is not a compliment to the Bears. Their underachievement has bothered me all season. No, this game is more about Detroit cementing themselves with a top-2 pick in next year's draft. Their home fans will probably be ok with it, too.
Buccaneers (+2) over Falcons
I'm a little worried about this one, because 8-7 Atlanta seems genuine in their quest to not have a losing record. But Tampa Bay can be a little frisky at home, and they will want to give their rookie coach something to write home about.
Chargers (-3) over Redskins
San Diego is locked into a first-round bye. The problem is that the Redskins could potentially lose to the Charger backups. A trip all the way to the west coast will be quite off-putting for a Washington team in turmoil.
Seahawks (+6) over Titans
All right, I will admit that this pick troubles me deeply. Despite tripping up against the Chargers, Tennessee has been one of the hottest things going. Seattle...has not been. But I think the possibility of the playoffs was a real rally cry for the Titans after their disasterous start. Now that the playoffs are an impossibility, they may be downtrodden on the road.
GAMES THAT MATTER
Jaguars (+2) over Browns
Why It Matters: Only mathematically. If Jacksonville wins and the rest of the western hemisphere's contenders lose, they can sneak in. But it would be a miracle that would make last week's Jets scenario look like taking candy from a baby...
Admittedly, this line confuses me. Yes, the Jags are basically done. But with a 1pm kickoff, they won't be mathematically eliminated yet. They'll play this one hard, which should be more than enough against Cleveland.
Eagles (+3) over Cowboys
Why It Matters: If Philadelphia wins, they will get the ever-important first-round bye as the #2 playoff seed. If Dallas wins (an gets a good amount of help from other teams, THEY get the #2 seed. So um, both teams care a little bit about this one...
I thought Philly would win this division from the beginning...I'm not going to retreat in week 17. The gargantuan stadium in Dallas is sure to be rocking, but the Eagles will be ready. They put themselves in this win-and-bye situation. And they'll carry it out.
Texans (-7) over Patriots
Why It Matters: Well, it matters a whole lot more to Houston than New England. Houston needs a win and some decent help to score a wild card. The Patriots secure the #3 seed with a win, but falling to the 4 wouldn't be any tragedy for them...
There is really a perfet storm at work here. The Pats don't care about the 3-seed. But you know who they are competing with for it? The Bengals team that plays the Jets tonight. If New Englansd wins, Cinci is locked into the 4-seed and has no reason to play whatsoever. Would the Patriots risk getting the 4 seed in order to give the Bengals more incentive to beat the Jets? My answer is an emphatic Stone Cold "hell yeah."
Steelers (-3) over Dolphins
Why It Matters: Both teams are fighting for the same wild card spot(s). Miami has the same impossible path that I described for the Jaguars. the Steelers need a lot of help, but their situation is a little less bleak...
Ultimately, this one won't matter. Each team has played themselves out of the playoffs in the past few weeks. But the Steelers will go out in style and get ready for next year.
Vikings (-8) over Giants
Why It Matters: Everyone knows the Giants are done. But they can provide some enormous help for their NFC East foes if they can knock off Minnesota. Just yesterday, it seemed Brett Favre was MVP and the Vikings were a lock for the bye week. Things have changed drastically, as they now must beat New York and have Philly lose to get their cherished week off...
I would love to declare that the Giants will stage an uprising and make the pain of last week a little less sever for their fans. But this will be a mail-in. Brandon Jacobs won't play, and the shambled defense cannot contain a Minnesota offense that will play like maniacs to try and get that bye.
Packers (+3) over Cardinals
Why It Matters: Well, both teams can play this game with some relief. They are both in the playoffs for certain. And it's a strong likelihood they will play in a rematch next week in the first round of the playoffs. It only matters in terms of seeding...
Quite frankly, I don't think the Cards will care much about this one. They are definitely hosting a playoff game next week, and they have no chance to move up to the important #2 seed. And if they play the Packers in the first round, they won't show them their entire offensive arsenal today.
Broncos (-10) over Chiefs
Why It Matters: After starting 6-0, Denver is scratching and clawing for a wild card spot. They need a win and help to get in...
The Broncos are bad, the Chiefs are worse. We simply have to believe that Denver, playing at home, will blow out Kansas City and pray for help.
Ravens (-10.5) over Raiders
Why It Matters: If my calculations are correct, Baltimore is going to the playoffs as long as they win this game...
Everything I said about the Broncos/Chiefs game also applies to this one. Except Baltimore controls its own fate, and being on the road won't be the thing that comes between them and a playoff berth.
Jets (-10) over Bengals
Why It Matters: In case you've been living under a boulder in New York, the Jets make the playoffs if they win today. The Bengals may or may not be playing for a slightly higher playoff seeding.
Don't do this to us, Jets. Don't you dare.
Enjoy the games, everyone! See y'all tomorrow.
Week 17...it's a week that gives Las Vegas fits year after year. Will good teams play, or rest? Will so-so teams play with pride, or shut it down? Will crappy teams go for the always-elusive win, or tank for a better draft pick?
So many questions for this "purgatory" of an NFL week. Luckily I have the answers. They might not necessarily be correct, but you better believe that I have answers.
We'll make things easy in this picks section; starting with 'games that don't matter' and then moving on to the 'games that matter.' To save space up here, I will describe the games that matter beneath the pick. The first section will be harder to pick because of the questions listed above. But after a mediocre finish to the blog's picking section, there's nothing like a week 17 domination to get back in your good graces. So let's get to it. And in an extreme turn of events, we will START WITH the...
UPSET PERFICTION OF THE WEEK
Rams (+7.5) over 49ers
St. Louis, at 1-14, is already guarenteed a top-2 pick in next year's draft. When I picked the Rams to beat the 49ers earlier this season, San Fran eeked it out in the end to win 35-0. It's payback time in St. Louis. Rams head coach Stve Spagnuolo will have his troops going all-out, while the Niners will take a more 'indifferent' approach. Rams Nation celebrates a step forward at 2-14.
GAMES THAT DON'T MATTER
Bills (-8) over Colts
In case you didn't believe just how bizarre week 17 can be, here's a perfect line to start with. The 5-10 Bills favored to beat the 14-1 Colts by more than a touchdown. Everyone in New York saw what happens when Indy puts their backups in (they get demolished.) Buffalo will give their rabid fans a reason to cheer. Will Peyton Manning even be required to sit on the sideline in frigid Buffalo? I think the Colts would rather saddle him up in the locker room with a Snuggie and hot cocoa.
Panthers (-7) over Saints
The same story goes for this game. It can be safely assumed that a surging Carolina team, playing at home, will beat down New Orleans backups. Quarterback Matt Moore adds to his legend down south.
Bears (-3) over Lions
No, this is not a compliment to the Bears. Their underachievement has bothered me all season. No, this game is more about Detroit cementing themselves with a top-2 pick in next year's draft. Their home fans will probably be ok with it, too.
Buccaneers (+2) over Falcons
I'm a little worried about this one, because 8-7 Atlanta seems genuine in their quest to not have a losing record. But Tampa Bay can be a little frisky at home, and they will want to give their rookie coach something to write home about.
Chargers (-3) over Redskins
San Diego is locked into a first-round bye. The problem is that the Redskins could potentially lose to the Charger backups. A trip all the way to the west coast will be quite off-putting for a Washington team in turmoil.
Seahawks (+6) over Titans
All right, I will admit that this pick troubles me deeply. Despite tripping up against the Chargers, Tennessee has been one of the hottest things going. Seattle...has not been. But I think the possibility of the playoffs was a real rally cry for the Titans after their disasterous start. Now that the playoffs are an impossibility, they may be downtrodden on the road.
GAMES THAT MATTER
Jaguars (+2) over Browns
Why It Matters: Only mathematically. If Jacksonville wins and the rest of the western hemisphere's contenders lose, they can sneak in. But it would be a miracle that would make last week's Jets scenario look like taking candy from a baby...
Admittedly, this line confuses me. Yes, the Jags are basically done. But with a 1pm kickoff, they won't be mathematically eliminated yet. They'll play this one hard, which should be more than enough against Cleveland.
Eagles (+3) over Cowboys
Why It Matters: If Philadelphia wins, they will get the ever-important first-round bye as the #2 playoff seed. If Dallas wins (an gets a good amount of help from other teams, THEY get the #2 seed. So um, both teams care a little bit about this one...
I thought Philly would win this division from the beginning...I'm not going to retreat in week 17. The gargantuan stadium in Dallas is sure to be rocking, but the Eagles will be ready. They put themselves in this win-and-bye situation. And they'll carry it out.
Texans (-7) over Patriots
Why It Matters: Well, it matters a whole lot more to Houston than New England. Houston needs a win and some decent help to score a wild card. The Patriots secure the #3 seed with a win, but falling to the 4 wouldn't be any tragedy for them...
There is really a perfet storm at work here. The Pats don't care about the 3-seed. But you know who they are competing with for it? The Bengals team that plays the Jets tonight. If New Englansd wins, Cinci is locked into the 4-seed and has no reason to play whatsoever. Would the Patriots risk getting the 4 seed in order to give the Bengals more incentive to beat the Jets? My answer is an emphatic Stone Cold "hell yeah."
Steelers (-3) over Dolphins
Why It Matters: Both teams are fighting for the same wild card spot(s). Miami has the same impossible path that I described for the Jaguars. the Steelers need a lot of help, but their situation is a little less bleak...
Ultimately, this one won't matter. Each team has played themselves out of the playoffs in the past few weeks. But the Steelers will go out in style and get ready for next year.
Vikings (-8) over Giants
Why It Matters: Everyone knows the Giants are done. But they can provide some enormous help for their NFC East foes if they can knock off Minnesota. Just yesterday, it seemed Brett Favre was MVP and the Vikings were a lock for the bye week. Things have changed drastically, as they now must beat New York and have Philly lose to get their cherished week off...
I would love to declare that the Giants will stage an uprising and make the pain of last week a little less sever for their fans. But this will be a mail-in. Brandon Jacobs won't play, and the shambled defense cannot contain a Minnesota offense that will play like maniacs to try and get that bye.
Packers (+3) over Cardinals
Why It Matters: Well, both teams can play this game with some relief. They are both in the playoffs for certain. And it's a strong likelihood they will play in a rematch next week in the first round of the playoffs. It only matters in terms of seeding...
Quite frankly, I don't think the Cards will care much about this one. They are definitely hosting a playoff game next week, and they have no chance to move up to the important #2 seed. And if they play the Packers in the first round, they won't show them their entire offensive arsenal today.
Broncos (-10) over Chiefs
Why It Matters: After starting 6-0, Denver is scratching and clawing for a wild card spot. They need a win and help to get in...
The Broncos are bad, the Chiefs are worse. We simply have to believe that Denver, playing at home, will blow out Kansas City and pray for help.
Ravens (-10.5) over Raiders
Why It Matters: If my calculations are correct, Baltimore is going to the playoffs as long as they win this game...
Everything I said about the Broncos/Chiefs game also applies to this one. Except Baltimore controls its own fate, and being on the road won't be the thing that comes between them and a playoff berth.
Jets (-10) over Bengals
Why It Matters: In case you've been living under a boulder in New York, the Jets make the playoffs if they win today. The Bengals may or may not be playing for a slightly higher playoff seeding.
Don't do this to us, Jets. Don't you dare.
Enjoy the games, everyone! See y'all tomorrow.
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